The tides of uncertainty have ebbed and flowed for decades, but nowhere more dramatically than in commercial real estate. Since COVID, something seismic has happened—a shift so profound that many still refuse to name it, let alone confront it. We cling to the comfort of the familiar, and that’s understandable. But let’s be honest: the old normal is gone. The genie isn’t going back in the bottle.
For commercial real estate (CRE), the shift is not subtle. Demand has moved from simple to complex, from static to fluid, from singular to multidimensional. And yet the industry keeps trying to run tomorrow’s world through yesterday’s model: investment-first, rigid, and propped up by fragmented delivery systems and entrenched mindsets.
Fresh Thinking
The question is no longer whether change is happening. The question is whether we’re prepared to change how we think—before the market forces us to.
I stepped back from commenting on CRE and workplace matters for a time. Recently, a friend nudged me to re-enter the fray, suggesting an independent perspective may still be of value. So I’m dipping my toe back into the discourse about the spaces and places we use for commercial purposes—not to rehash tired narratives, but to challenge them.
There is a great deal to consider. In the weeks ahead, I’ll start with three ideas to help make sense of the landscape we now face:
- CRE in a Laminar World — not only has the game changed, but the stadium has too.
- People and Place — Joining the Dots — clarity emerges when we stop treating people and place as separate problems.
- Smart Spaces & Places — dynamic systems that enable distributed work, platform thinking, and real social value.
The Shift from Fixed to Fluid
After decades in commercial real estate—and with a look over the fence at sectors like healthcare, social housing, and community sports—I believe we’re in the middle of an almost silent revolution: a shift from fixed assets to fluid experiences. What was once measured in square feet is now measured in flexibility, purpose, and human-centric design.
And yet old habits die hard. Too much of the body politic is still clinging to a pre-COVID, pre-Trump worldview—anchored to a property investment model that is deteriorating in plain sight, defended by theories that no longer explain reality, and reinforced by operating practices built for 20th century standardisation.
The force ten gale
The forces of change are blowing like a Force 10 gale. You can pretend you don’t feel it, but you can’t stop it.
Will some kind of hybrid compromise calm things down? Will mavericks like Regus, and other disruptors step out of the shadows and reshape the rules? Will central business districts adapt, or simply hollow out? And what—exactly—are we going to do with the growing inventory of partially or fully vacated business park environments and suburban office blocks?
From where I stand, the cozy, mostly predictable world of commercial real estate has entered a new era—one defined by uncertainty on a scale most in this sector have never had to face.
It reminds me of a line I used in my book, from Irish playwright Seán O’Casey’s Juno and the Paycock: “the whole world is a terrible state o’ chassis.”
So What
So here’s the provocation: we need to go beyond conventional thinking—not politely, not incrementally, not someday. We need the courage to consider different models, to seek out perspectives beyond our natural silos, and to put new thinking into action while we still have choices.